You Might Have Seen Some Scary Headlines This Week

Home sales across the country fell pretty sharply in January — about 8% fewer homes sold compared to December, and about 4% fewer than this time last year.

That sounds bad. But when you dig into what's really going on — especially right here in Metro Atlanta — the picture is a lot more interesting than the headlines make it seem.

I just got the latest local data from the ARA/FMLS Real Estate Outlook (that's the event where Atlanta's top economists break down exactly what's happening in our market), and I want to share what I learned — because whether you're thinking about buying, selling, or just curious about what your home is worth, this stuff matters.

So Why Did Sales Drop?

Two big reasons. First, the weather was brutal in January. Major storms and freezing temperatures swept across the country. When it's that cold and icy, people just aren't out house hunting — and that shows up in the numbers.

Second, buying a home is still expensive. Even though things are getting better (more on that in a minute), a lot of people are still feeling squeezed. Monthly mortgage payments have gone up about 32% since 2022. That's a big jump, and it's kept a lot of would-be buyers on the sidelines.

The good news? The Southeast held up better than every other part of the country. Our region only saw a small 1.6% dip compared to last year, and home prices barely budged — up just a tiny fraction. That tells me our area is still holding strong even when the rest of the country catches a cold.

What's Happening Right Here in Metro Atlanta

Here's where it gets really interesting. The local numbers tell a story that's different from what you're seeing on the national news.

Fewer homes are selling. In Greater Atlanta, about 11% fewer homes closed in January compared to last year. That's a slow start, no doubt. But January is always the quietest month in real estate — so this isn't time to panic.

But the homes that ARE selling? They're selling for more. The average price of a home that sold in Greater Atlanta was up 4% from last year. So even though fewer people are buying, the ones who are buying are still paying strong prices for the right homes.

There are more homes to choose from. The number of homes listed for sale is up almost 7% from last year, and we're getting back to the kind of selection we had before COVID changed everything. If you tried to buy a home in 2021 or 2022 and couldn't find anything — that's changing.

Homes are sitting on the market longer. This is actually a good thing if you're a buyer. You have more time to think, more time to negotiate, and less pressure to make a snap decision you might regret.

Here's the big one: right now in Atlanta, there are 63% more people trying to sell their homes than there are people looking to buy. That's a complete flip from a couple of years ago when buyers were fighting over every house. If you're a buyer, that's a lot of leverage you didn't have before. If you're a seller, it means you can't just throw a price out there and hope for the best anymore.

What About Mortgage Rates?

Rates are actually in a pretty decent spot right now. The average 30-year mortgage rate in January was about 6.1% — the lowest it's been in three years. Last year at this time, rates were closer to 7%.

What does that look like in real dollars? If you're buying a $400,000 home and putting 10% down, you'd save about $234 a month compared to what you would have paid last year. Over a year, that's almost $2,800 back in your pocket.

Most experts expect rates to stay in the low 6% range through 2026. They might dip a little, but nobody is expecting a dramatic drop. So if you're waiting for rates to hit 4% again — that's probably not happening anytime soon.

Who's Actually Buying Right Now?

This part of the data was eye-opening. About 25% of homes being sold right now are going to people paying all cash — no mortgage at all. Most of those buyers are older, with a lot of built-up home value from owning for decades. They're selling their current home, taking that profit, and buying their next one outright.

On the flip side, first-time buyers are having a harder time. Between student loan debt, high rents making it tough to save, and prices that have climbed a lot over the past few years, getting that first home is a real challenge. But there IS progress — first-time buyers made up 31% of sales in January, up from 28% last year. More people are finding a way in.

And here's something a lot of people don't realize: there's a massive housing shortage in this country. We haven't built enough homes for over 15 years, and depending on who you ask, we're short somewhere between 3 and 7 million homes. That shortage is a big reason why home values have stayed so strong — there simply aren't enough homes for everyone who wants one.

What About Home Values? Should I Be Worried?

Short answer: no. If you own a home, you're in a really strong position. The average homeowner has gained about $130,500 in home value since January 2020. That's not Monopoly money — that's real wealth you've built just by owning your home.

Prices across the country are expected to go up about 4% this year, and for the first time in a while, wages are growing faster than home prices. That's a healthy sign. It means housing is slowly becoming more affordable compared to what people earn — even if it doesn't always feel that way when you're looking at listings.

Georgia got a solid "B" grade on a national report card for housing affordability and new home construction. We're doing better than a lot of states, and Atlanta continues to attract people and businesses. Our growth story isn't slowing down.

So What Should You Do?

If you're thinking about buying: This is one of the best windows you've had in years. There are more homes to choose from, rates are lower than last year, and you have real room to negotiate. Don't wait for the "perfect" time — because when rates drop further, more buyers will jump back in and competition will heat up again. The best time to buy is when you're financially ready and you find a home that works for your family.

If you're thinking about selling: The market still rewards sellers who do the work. Get your home looking its best, price it based on what's happening right now (not what your neighbor sold for two years ago), and work with an agent who knows how to position your home in this market. Across the country, 16% of homes still sold for more than the asking price in January — so buyers are out there and they're willing to pay for the right home.

If you're not sure what to do: That's totally okay. Sometimes the smartest move is just having a conversation to figure out where you stand. What's your home worth today? What could you afford if you wanted to buy? What would your monthly payment look like? I answer these questions every day, and I'm happy to walk through them with you — no strings attached.

Spring is right around the corner, and it's always the busiest time in real estate. If you've been thinking about making a move, now is the time to start planning.

📞 Call or text me: 678-975-4686
📧 Email: [email protected]

Jenneisha Parker, REALTOR® with The Hester Group | MBA, MRP
Serving Gwinnett, Barrow, Walton & Jackson Counties

Sources: National Association of REALTORS® (February 2026); ARA/FMLS 2026 Real Estate Outlook (February 2026); Freddie Mac; Redfin; U.S. Census Bureau